Laura Guzman-Rincon

I am a research fellow at the Mathematics Institute of the University of Warwick, funded by the Warwick-Wellcome Translational Fellowship. I have previously held postdoctoral research positions funded by the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust and the JUNIPER consortium. During the pandemic, I was a participant in the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling Operational sub-group, SPI-M-O, a sub-group of SAGE that gives expert advice to the UK government.

My research focuses on the development of Bayesian hierarchical models, primarily applied to epidemiology and other real-world challenges. I am particularly interested in the application of Gaussian processes to analyse genetic, temporal, and spatial data, and developing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to enhance the implementation of these models.

Recently, I have worked on developing a modelling framework to estimate and produce short-term forecasts of growth rates during an epidemic.

I have also worked with colleagues in Astrophysics to use Gaussian processes to estimate the initial configuration of the cataclysmic variable HS 0218+ 3229.

Publications

• Guzman-Rincon, L.M., Hill, E.M., Dyson, L., Tildesley, M.J., Keeling, M.J., 2023. Bayesian Estimation of Real-time Epidemic Growth Rates using Gaussian Processes: Local Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, qlad056. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad056.
• Mwanga, M.J., Lambisia, A.W., Morobe, J.M., Murunga, N., Moraa, E., Ndwiga, L., Cheruiyot, R., Musyoki, J., Mutunga, M., Guzman-Rincon, L.M., Sande, C., Mwangangi, J., Bejon, P., Ochola-Oyier, L.I., Nokes, J., Agoti, C.N., Nyiro, J., Githinji, G., 2023. New SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant with Spike Protein Mutation Y451H, Kilifi, Kenya, March–May 2023. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 29(11):2376-2379. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2911.230894.
• Brand, S.P.C., Cavallaro, M., Cumming, F., Turner, C., Florence, I., Blomquist, P., Hilton, J., Guzman-Rincon, L.M., House, T., Nokes, J., Keeling, M.J., 2023. The role of vaccination and public awareness in medium-term forecasts of monkeypox incidence in the United Kingdom. Nature Communications, 14, 4100. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38816-8.
• Toloza O., Gänsicke, B.T., Guzman-Rincon, L.M., Marsh, T.R., Szkody, P., Schreiber, M.R., Martino, D., Zorotovic, M., El-Badry, K., Koester, D., Lagos, F., 2023. The C/N ratio from FUV spectroscopy as a constraint on evolution of the dwarf nova HS 0218+ 3229, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 523, Issue 1, July 2023, Pages 305–326, https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad1306.

On-going projects

• Methods for the early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern using sequences submitted in GISAID. Project developed during my work with the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust with Mike Mwanga, George Githinji and James Nokes.
• Detection of infectious disease outbreaks using epidemiological and genetic data: case-study of Campylobacter infections in England. Project developed during my PhD with my supervisors Simon Spencer and Noel McCarthy. (See my PhD thesis here).

Other projects I have worked on

• Image analysis of satellite photographs of the Antarctic to understand the behaviour of seals (British Antarctic Survey, Alan Turing Data Study Group 2019). (See the final report here).
• Simulation of the propagation of train delays in the UK railways (Resonate, European Study Group with Industry 2017).
• Prediction of the duration of traffic jams on UK highways (Thales, MSc group project, 2016).
• The study of armed conflict patterns (personal work).
• Designing bacterial genes for controlling plant pathogens (Bronze medal, iGEM competition 2011, Colombian group).
• Constructing a quantitative and qualitative approach to information theory and estimators of entropy from a statistical-logic theory perspective. (2013. See my Mathematics undergraduate thesis here, in Spanish).
• Understanding how to extend quantities in classical information theory to its quantum counterpart. (2020. See my Physics undergraduate thesis here, in Spanish).

Awards and funding

• Warwick-Wellcome Translational Fellowship Award. Research Fellow, University of Warwick, UK. 2023.
• STEM For Britain - Finalist. Houses of Parliament, UK, 2023.
• Weldon Memorial Prize. Awarded to the members of the SPI-M-O group. University of Oxford, UK, 2022.
• SPI-M-O Award for Modelling and Data Support. Department of Health & Social Care, UK, 2022.
• RAMP Outreach Innovation Award. RAMP (Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic) - The Royal Society, UK, 2022.
• EPSRC Scholarship. PhD Funding, University of Warwick, UK, 2016–2020.
• Cool Data of the Year award. Cappfinity, UK, 2017.
• Colfuturo Scholarship. MSc Funding, Colombia, 2015–2016.
• Quiero Estudiar Scholarship. University of Los Andes, Colombia, 2007–2013.
• Bronze Award - International Genetically Engineered Machine Competition (iGEM). Colombian team. Indiana University, USA, 2011.